[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 18 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0804UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1046UT possible lower European
M1.0 2017UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jun was R1, with three M1
level solar flares. The first two solar flares originated from
AR3712 (S25W10, beta-delta) and the third flare originated from
AR3711 (S12W52, alpha). There are a total of seven numbered sunspots
on the solar disk. AR3712 has shown growth over the past day
and is considered to be the largest and most magnetically complex
sunspot on the disk. AR3713 (S14E03, beta-gamma) has also shown
some growth over the past day. AR3716 (N10W06, beta) has shown
some minor growth follow by minor decay in its trailers. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 18-20
Jun, mostly due to AR3712.
Several CMEs were observed on 17-Jun. The first was directed to
the solar southeast from 17/0836 UT, but is suspected to be a
farside event. The second CME was directly mostly to the solar
northeast from 17/1112 UT. This event coincides with an M1
flare from AR3712 at 17/1046 UT, and some minor dimming can
be seen near the region at this time. However, the bulk of
the CME is likely farside, with only some minor plasma ejection
from the frontside associated with the flare. This ejection is
not expected to be significantly geoeffective.
Two CMEs can be seen from 2057 UT, one of which may be
associated with an M1 flare from AR3711 near the southwestern
limb. Analysis will be carried out when more data in available,
however preliminary analysis suggests these events will not be
significantly geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on 17-Jun,
although imagery is mostly unavailable from 1300 UT onwards.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on 17-Jun and S0-S1 are expected over 18-20 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 17-Jun was mildly disturbed.
The solar wind speed ranged between 400-500 km/s and is currently
near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+6 to -7 nT, with several house of intermittent southward Bz
near the end of the UT day. These slightly enhanced conditions
may be due to a small equatorial coronal hole nearing the western
limb. The solar wind is expected to return to background levels
on 18-Jun, and may have a mild disturbance on 20-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 23221322
Cocos Island 6 22211222
Darwin 7 23211222
Townsville 8 23221322
Learmonth 9 23221332
Alice Springs 7 23211222
Gingin 9 22321323
Canberra 7 23221222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22231322
Hobart 8 22231322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 21141321
Casey 8 33211222
Mawson 17 23312345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3123 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 8 G0
19 Jun 8 G0
20 Jun 16 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 17-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 18-20 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Jun were
generally normal to fair at most latitudes. Some locations has
degraded conditions during local night hours in low and middle
latitudes. HF radio communication conditions over 18-20 Jun are
expected to be generally normal, although mild degradations may
continue during local night hours on 18-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on
16 June and is current for 16-18 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17-Jun were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region. Degraded conditions were observed in Hobart
and Niue island during local night hours. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 18-20 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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