[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 17 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jun was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3712 (S25E03,
beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex
region, and has shown some redistribution and recent growth of
its intermediate spots. This spot also produced several C-class
flares over the UT day. AR3716 (N10E07, beta) has shown spot
development over the UT day and produced two C-class flares.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance of
R2 over 17-19 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but none of these
are considered significantly geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 16-Jun was slightly elevated due to the combined effects
of the recent CME arrival and coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a small coronal hole. Solar wind speed ranged from
337 to 481 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain slightly elevated over 17-18 Jun, before
returning towards background levels over 19-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 21223132
Cocos Island 6 21223121
Darwin 9 21233232
Townsville 9 21233232
Learmonth 9 21233232
Alice Springs 9 21233231
Gingin 7 21222132
Canberra 6 10222132
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 20222131
Hobart 6 20222131
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 10133241
Casey 8 22221141
Mawson 21 42323362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20 3323 5434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 10 G0
18 Jun 8 G0
19 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jun. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 conditions
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
17-19 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 16-Jun. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 17-19 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on
16 June and is current for 16-18 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Jun were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Periods of ionospheric scintillation were
observed in Niue during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 85700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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