[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 16 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0627UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M1.3 flare at 15/0627UT from AR3712 (S25E17, beta-delta).
Several C-class flares were also produced by this region over
the UT day. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3712 is the largest and most magnetically
complex region and has shown some redistribution of its intermediate
spots. AR3716 (N10E22, beta) has exhibited spot development over
the UT day. Newly numbered AR3717 (N07W32, beta) has shown spot
growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 16-18 Jun,
with a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed, visible
in H-alpha imagery at 15/1047UT centred near S47E50. An associated
CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 15/1148UT.
Modelling indicates this CME will pass underneath Earth and does
not contain a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on
UT day 15-Jun increased, ranging from 340 to 465 km/s and is
currently near 400 km/s. A moderate solar wind shock was observed
at 15/1102UT, indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +13 to -14 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 16-18 Jun due to the combined effects
of the recent CME arrival and coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a small coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 11234212
Cocos Island 8 11234202
Darwin 9 12134212
Townsville 15 12245223
Learmonth 13 21245212
Alice Springs 12 12235212
Gingin 9 12234212
Canberra 8 11134212
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 11234222
Hobart 8 11134212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 00135311
Casey 12 23333313
Mawson 28 54445324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1121 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 16 G0-G1
17 Jun 10 G0
18 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 15-Jun, however several sites
recorded an isolated period of G1. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 16-Jun due to the combined effects of a recent
CME arrival and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-18 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 15-Jun, with normal to fair conditions at low latitudes and
fair conditions at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 16-18 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Jun were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Depressions of 15% were observed in northern Australia during
local day. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 16-18 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 53600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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