[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 15 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0432UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M2.4 flare at 14/0432UT from AR3712 (S23E26, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3712 is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR3713 (S11E38, beta) has shown
development in its leader spots. AR3716 (N11E35, beta) and AR3711
(S10W11, beta) have both shown mild growth in their leader spots.
Two unnumbered regions are visible in the northwest solar quadrant.
The first is located near N16W66 (alpha) and is decaying. The
second is near N03W19 (alpha) and is growing. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 15-17 Jun, with a chance of R2. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A filament eruption was
observed, visible in H-alpha imagery centred near S15W25 at 14/0856UT.
No significant associated CME has been observed in coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Jun mildly increased,
ranging from 300 to 375 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 15-17 Jun
due to the combined effects of a possible CME arrival and coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from a small coronal hole
now in the western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 01210021
Cocos Island 2 11210011
Darwin 3 11210021
Townsville 4 12210022
Learmonth 4 11221022
Alice Springs 2 00210021
Gingin 4 01210032
Canberra 2 01210011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 01221021
Hobart 3 01221011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00321000
Casey 4 02121022
Mawson 18 41222155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1000 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 14 G0, chance of G1-G2
16 Jun 18 G1-G2
17 Jun 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 15-Jun, with a chance of G1-G2 due to the possible
arrival of a halo CME first observed on 12-Jun. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 16-Jun due to the combined effects
of the CME arrival and a coronal hole high speed wind stream
from a small coronal hole. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 17-Jun, with a chance of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 14-Jun, with normal to fair conditions at low latitudes. HF
radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 15-17 Jun. Possible geomagnetic activity may cause degraded
conditions from late 15-Jun to 16-Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on
14 June and is current for 14-15 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Jun were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressions of 15% were observed in northern Australia during
local day. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 15-17
Jun, but may become depressed on 16-Jun due to possible anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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