[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 14 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 12/2246UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.2 1645UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jun was R1, with one M-class
flare plus several high-level C-class flares. AR3713 (S11E52,
beta) was responsible for the M-class flare, but AR3712 (S23E40,
beta) was responsible for many C flares. AR3712 has shown dramatic
growth over the past day, and AR3716 (N11E51, beta) has shown
some minor growth. Otherwise, all other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
14-16 Jun. Several CMEs were observed on 13-Jun.
A weak halo CME was observed from 12/2348 UT, shortly after an M1 flare from
AR3711 (S10E03, beta) near the center of the disk. Analysis is
ongoing to determine whether these events are associated, however
if they then an arrival is expected either late UT day 15-Jun
or early 16-Jun. Four other CMEs were observed from the western
solar limb throughout the day, but these events have all been
assessed as farside. Another CME was seen from the northeastern
solar limb from 13/1836 UT but is not expected to be geoeffective.
The 10 MeV protons are still enhanced, but have remained under
the S1 threshold. They are not expected to rise significantly,
so S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 14-16
Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Jun was generally
at background levels. The solar wind speed was near 350 km/s
for most of the day. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(MF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +3 to -2 nT. If the weak halo CME is indeed associated with
the flare event, the solar wind is expected to become disturbed
over 15-16 Jun. In addition to that, a coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian and expected to increase the solar
wind speed by either late 16-Jun or else on 17-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01001100
Cocos Island 1 11001000
Darwin 1 11001101
Townsville 1 11001101
Learmonth 2 10102100
Alice Springs 1 01001100
Gingin 0 00001100
Canberra 1 00002100
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 01002100
Hobart 1 01002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 3 12101111
Mawson 1 11000001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 5 G0
15 Jun 12 Mostly G0, chance G1-G2
16 Jun 16 G1-G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-Jun. A weak halo CME may impact
Earth from late 15-Jun or else early 16-Jun; and coupled with
a coronal hole wind stream by the end of the period G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions may be expected over 15-16 Jun. If the CME does not
eventuate, then G0 conditions are expected over 14-15 Jun with
a slight chance for G1 on 16-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Fair
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 13-Jun, with high latitudes recovering after recent polar
cap absorption. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 14-15 Jun. Possible geomagnetic activity
may cause degraded conditions from late 15-Jun to 16-Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Jun were
near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed in the Australian
region, particularly during local night hours. Spread-F was observed
in Hobart and Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 14-15 Jun, but may become depressed
by 16-Jun due to possible anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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