[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 13 09:30:41 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 2246UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jun was R1, with a single
R1 flare from AR3709 (S10E03, beta). There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3709 has shown
some minor growth in its trailer spots, and AR3712 (S23E55, beta)
has grown rapidly over the day. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1
over 13-15 Jun.
A large asymmetrical halo CME was observed at
11/2312 UT, but this is considered to be a farside event and
therefore not geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed
in the solar southeast quadrant from 12/1345 UT. It is unclear
whether or not this was associated with a CME, as coronagraph
imagery is limited from this time onward. A prominence eruption
was observed off the solar southwest limb from 12/1556 UT, but
it is not likely any associated CME will be geoeffective. These
events will be monitored as coronagraph imagery becomes available.
The 10 MeV protons increased at the beginning of UT day 12-Jun,
likely in association with the farside halo CME. The protons
have peaked at 9.69 pfu, and while it is unlikely they will cross
the S1 threshold, there still remains a slight possibility of
S1 activity. Otherwise, S0 solar radiation storm conditions are
expected over 13-15 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 12-Jun was generally near
background levels. The solar wind speed was near 350 km/s for
most of the day. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +5 to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
near background levels over 13-15 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11101010
Cocos Island 1 11100010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 12101011
Learmonth 2 11111011
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Gingin 1 11001010
Canberra 1 01001010
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11001110
Hobart 1 01001110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 4 13200111
Mawson 14 11101236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 4432 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 5 G0
14 Jun 5 G0
15 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctica
regions were G0 on 12-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 13-15 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Jun were
generally normal. Some mild polar cap absorption may have been
observed at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal over 13-15 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on
10 June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Jun were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane during local night
hours and sporadic-E was observed in Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 13-15 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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