[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 12 09:30:41 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jun was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3709 (S10E17, beta) is the largest region and has
shown some decay in its trailer spots. AR3711 (S10E32, beta)
has exhibited mild growth in its trailer spots. Two unnumbered
regions are visible in the southeast solar quadrant. The first
is located near S25E70 (alpha) and is showing spot growth. The
second is currently rotating over the eastern limb near S15E88
(beta) and is possibly the return of AR3685. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A southwest-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 10/2336UT. This CME is considered
to be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 11-Jun declined, ranging from 340 to 550
km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 12-14 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 32211000
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 3 32110000
Townsville 5 32211110
Learmonth 4 32221000
Alice Springs 4 32210000
Gingin 4 32211000
Canberra 3 22211000
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 23211000
Hobart 4 23211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 22222000
Casey 6 33221100
Mawson 18 55421112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2110 1452
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 8 G0
13 Jun 5 G0
14 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Jun were
generally normal during local daylight hours with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are
expected over 12-14 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 63 was issued
on 8 June and is current for 10-12 Jun. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 64 was issued on 10 June and is current for 11-13 Jun.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Jun were near
predicted values in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at several Australian sites during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near monthly values over 12-14 Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 41800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list