[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 11 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 0609UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1007UT possible lower European
M5.3 1058UT possible lower European
X1.5 1108UT probable all European
M1.3 1329UT possible lower European
M9.5 1840UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jun was at the R3 level,
with one X1.5 class flare at 10/1108UT originating from AR3697
(S18W96, beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3709 (S10E34,
beta) is the largest region on the visible solar disk and grew
over the UT day. AR3707 (S18E07, beta) has shown growth in its
trailer spots. The unnumbered region (N18W55) recently appeared
and grew late in the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. AR3697, which has produced numerous flares
during its transit across the Sun, has rotated over the western
limb and out of view, while still producing flare activity. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Jun. Two
CMEs associated with flare activity from AR3697 were observed
and are not considered to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. Proton flux remained at the S0 level,
declining over the UT day towards background levels. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Jun. The solar
wind speed was at background levels for the beginning of the
UT day. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 10/1637UT.
An associated step increase in Bt was observed, with intermittent
periods of southward Bz. The solar wind speed ranged from 327
to 502 km/s and is currently near 485 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -11 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected
to remain slightly elevated over 11-Jun before returning to background
levels by 12-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11100321
Cocos Island 4 11100321
Darwin 4 20100322
Townsville 5 21100322
Learmonth 5 21110322
Alice Springs 3 10100321
Gingin 5 21100322
Canberra 2 11000211
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11000221
Hobart 2 11000221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00020010
Casey 9 22211342
Mawson 16 42111354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 15 G0-G1
12 Jun 10 G0
13 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 8 June and
is current for 10-11 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jun. Mostly G0 was observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Mawson. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 10/1637UT,
likely associated with the arrival of a CME that was first observed
on 08-Jun. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 11-Jun before returning
to G0 by 12-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0250UT 08/06, Ended at 1930UT 09/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Jun were
generally normal during local daylight hours with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are
expected over 11-13 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 121 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 121 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 63 was issued
on 8 June and is current for 10-12 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Jun were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Sporadic E and Spread F were observed in Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly values
over 11-13 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 78800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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