[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 10 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0701UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0820UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 2018UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jun was R1, with three low
level M-class flares originating from AR3697 (S18W83, beta) and
AR3709 (S10E47, beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3709 has shown some minor growth
over the past day, but all other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. AR3697, which has produced numerous flares during
its transit across the Sun, will rotate over the western limb
today and out of view. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1
over 10-12 Jun.
No CMEs were observed in available imagery on 09-Jun.
The 10 MeV protons are currently S0, just under the S1
threshold, and are mostly expected to continue to decline to
background levels on 10-Jun. There is a chance for further S1
solar radiation storm conditions upon CME arrival later in the
UT day of 10-Jun, however.
The solar wind environment was near background levels on 09-Jun.
The solar wind speed fell from near 500 km/s to near 400 km/s
throughout the day. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +3 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain settled for
the first half of 10-Jun until the CME from 08-Jun arrives later in
the day. From there on solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed
over 10-11 Jun before returning to background levels by 12-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 2 11211010
Alice Springs 1 11101001
Gingin 2 12200011
Canberra 1 01101011
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11011011
Hobart 1 11001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 7 23222022
Mawson 14 43312333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 4332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 28 G1-G2, chance G3
11 Jun 18 G1-G2
12 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 8 June and
is current for 10-11 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 09-Jun. A glancing
component from a CME that was first observed on 08-Jun is expected
to arrive in the second half of 10-Jun, although there is high
variability in the modeled arrival times. This event is expected
to induce G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions with a chance for G3 on
10-Jun. G1-G2 conditions are expected on 11-Jun before returning
to G0 by 12-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Fair Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0250UT 08/06, Ended at 1930UT 09/06
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0215UT 08/06, Ended at 1435UT 08/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
12 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Jun were
generally normal during local daylight hours but mildly degraded
during local night hours. A polar cap absorption event affected
high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal for the first half of 10-Jun before becoming moderately
degraded due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
11 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
12 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on
8 June and is current for 8-10 Jun. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 63 was issued on 8 June and is current for 10-12 Jun.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Jun were mostly
near predicted values in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was
observed in Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart during local night
hours. Signal spreading was observed in Canberra, Hobart and
Niue Island during local night hours. Scintillation was observed
at Niue between 10/0903-1010 UT. Polar cap absorption was observed
at high latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
on the first half of 10-Jun, before becoming up to 20% depressed
for the forecast period due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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