[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 9 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0028UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.4 0051UT possible lower West Pacific
M9.7 0150UT probable lower West Pacific
M1.5 0528UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0844UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 190/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2-R3 R0-R1, chance R2-R3 R0-R1, chance R2-R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jun was R2. Two R1 flares
were observed from near AR3707 (S18E35, beta). A long duration
R2 level flare that was categorised as M9.6 was observed from
AR3697 (S18W68, gamma), in addition to four other low-level M-class
flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3697 has been slightly unstable, but otherwise
all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity over 09-11 Jun is expected to be predominantly R0-R1,
with a chance for R2-R3 flares.
The M9 flare from AR3697 as associated with a fast asymmetric halo CME.
A filament was weaved throughout the sunspot region, which appeared
to be ripped out during the flare event. This CME has been assessed
to have an Earth-directed component, however models are suggesting
a high variability in the time of arrival. Current modelling suggests
a likely arrival in the second half of UT day 10-Jun.
No other CMEs were observed on 08-Jun.
In response to the M9 flare event, the 10 MeV, 50 MeV
and 100 MeV protons rose. The 10 MeV protons peaked at 1030 pfu,
just briefly breaching S3 solar radiation storm conditions. S1
solar radiation storm conditions are expected on 09-Jun, before
falling to near background levels.
The solar wind environment was slightly disturbed at the beginning
of the day, but currently is near background levels. The maximum
solar wind speed observed was 555 km/s, but is currently near 470 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -6 nT. The solar
wind is expected to stay near background levels until the arrival
of the CME. Afterwards, disturbed conditions can be expected
over 10-11 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 32322211
Cocos Island 5 22321200
Darwin 10 42322212
Townsville 11 42323212
Learmonth 9 33322211
Alice Springs 8 32322211
Gingin 10 42322221
Canberra 7 32222211
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 32223221
Hobart 9 32213321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 42123311
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 23 64332242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 22 1323 5533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 6 G0
10 Jun 28 G1-G2, chance G3
11 Jun 18 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 8 June and
is current for 10-11 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 08-Jun. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G2. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 09-Jun. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected to commence in the second half of UT
day 10-Jun, with a chance for G3 due to an anticipated CME arrival.
G1-G2 conditions are likely to persist on 11-Jun, but on a declining
trend.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 06 2024 0250UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0215UT 08/06, Ended at 1435UT 08/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
10 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair
11 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Jun were
mostly normal in low and middle latitudes, with some degraded
conditions during local night hours. Conditions at high latitudes
were poor due to an ongoing polar cap absorption (PCA) event.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be normal at
low and middle latitudes and poor at high latitudes on 09-Jun,
before becoming degraded over 10-11 Jun due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity..
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
11 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on
8 June and is current for 8-10 Jun. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 63 was issued on 8 June and is current for 10-12 Jun.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Jun were mostly
near predicted values to 15% enhanced. Spread-F was observed
in Darwin and Hobart during local night hours. A polar cap absorption
event began from around 08/0300 UT and is ongoing, blacking out
radio signals at high latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values on 09-Jun, but expected to become depressed
after the CME arrival on 10-Jun into 11-Jun by 20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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