[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 8 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 0913UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1623UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Jun was R1, with one M4
flare and one M1 flare. The M4 flare came from a region beyond
the eastern solar limb - possibly AR3709 (S10E74), and the M1
flare came from AR3697 (S18W58, beta). There are currently nine
numbered sunspots on the solar disk. AR3697 has been slightly
unstable and AR3707 (S18E49, beta) has shown some minor growth.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 08-10 Jun.
A faint CME was observed directed to the west from 07/1636 UT,
possibly followed by a second at 07/2000 UT, possibly associated
with activity near AR3697. This CME activity is not expected to be
geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on 07-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 07-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 08-10 Jun.
The solar wind environment became disturbed at 07/1050 UT.
This was unexpected and the cause is currently being investigated,
although the solar wind signature appears it may have been due to a
CME. A possible candidate is a coronal dimming event on 04-Jun,
although this did not produce any obvious CME in the available
imagery. The peak solar wind speed reached 517 km/s and is currently
near 450-500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
reached 15
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was +9 to -15 nT. There
were several sustained periods of southward Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 12234312
Cocos Island 10 12234222
Darwin 9 22233312
Townsville 13 12244412
Learmonth 16 12245422
Alice Springs 10 12234312
Gingin 10 12234311
Canberra 11 02234412
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 12234412
Hobart 12 12234412
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 26 01346610
Casey 8 12133311
Mawson 16 34334411
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2221 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 12 G0
09 Jun 6 G0
10 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Jun, however an unexpected event did produce
two periods of planetary G2 geomagnetic conditions. The cause
is being investigated, however is suspected to be from a CME.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-10 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Jun were
mostly normal, with mildly degraded conditions at low and high
latitudes during local night hours. Mostly normal HF radio communication
conditions are expected over 08-10 Jun, although slight degradations
are possible in the next 24 hours due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
09 Jun 125 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on
7 June and is current for 7-9 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Jun were near predicted
monthly values. Spread-F was observed in Townsville and Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be generally near
predicted values over 08-10, however may experience mild depressions
in the following day due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 47100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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