[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 7 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.1 1506UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jun was at the R2 level
due to an M6.1 flare at 06/1506UT produced by AR3697 (S18W43,
beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3697 is the largest
region on the disk and has shown slight growth in leader spots
and decay of intermediate spots. AR3698 (N21W54, beta) and AR3701
(S06W37, beta) have shown signs of spot redistribution. AR3707 (S15E61,
beta) has recently rotated into the disk and has shown signs
of growth. The two unnumbered regions near S25E73 (alpha) and
S10E85 (alpha) respectively, both appear to be stable. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Jun. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Jun
declined slightly, ranging from 348 to 424 km/s and is currently
near 365 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. A minor step increase in solar wind speed was observed
at 06/0740UT, possibly associated with a weak CME arrival. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 07-09 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11211000
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 2 11211001
Townsville 3 12211101
Learmonth 2 11221000
Alice Springs 1 10201000
Gingin 2 11211000
Canberra 1 01201000
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11211000
Hobart 1 01201000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00310000
Casey 3 12211100
Mawson 7 33321100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 1212 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 6 G0
08 Jun 6 G0
09 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 06-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-09 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-Jun were
mostly normal, with mildly degraded conditions at mid to high
latitudes. Normal HF conditions are expected over 07-09 Jun.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 130 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 130 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Jun were near predicted monthly values, with
northern Australian region MUFs 20% enhanced during local night
hours and southern Australian region MUFs 15% depressed during
local night hours. Spread F was observed in Brisbane and Canberra
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 07-09 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 57500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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