[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 6 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 0856UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.6 1007UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M3.4 flare at 05/0856UT and an M2.6 at 05/1007UT. Both
flares were produced by AR3697 (S18W31, gamma-delta). There are
currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3697 is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk but has shown decay in its leader
spots. AR3698 (N21W39, beta) has exhibited spot development in
its intermediate spots. AR3703 (S07W07, beta) has shown spot
growth over the UT day. Two unnumbered regions recently appeared
on the disk and are visible in the northeast solar quadrant.
The first is near N33E30 (alpha) and appears stable. The second
is near N06E45 (beta) and has exhibited spot growth. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Jun. A filament
eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery near N14E55
at 05/1519UT. An associated northeast-directed CME was observed
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 05/1636UT. Modelling indicates
this CME is mostly missing the Earth, with a chance of a very
weak glancing arrival on 10-Jun. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Jun declined,
ranging from 380 to 480 km/s and is currently near 385 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 06-08 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 02211212
Cocos Island 4 03211101
Darwin 5 12221212
Townsville 6 12222212
Learmonth 7 13222212
Alice Springs 5 12222202
Gingin 6 03211312
Canberra 3 02111211
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 02111212
Hobart 3 02111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 01110210
Casey 7 13222212
Mawson 13 33322324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2322 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 8 G0
07 Jun 6 G0
08 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 06-08 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Jun were
mostly normal, with mildly degraded conditions during local night
hours for middle to high latitudes. Normal HF conditions are
expected over 06-08 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
3 June and is current for 4-6 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Jun were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was generally observed during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 06-08 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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