[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 5 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0631UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 0904UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 192/144
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jun was at the R1 level
due to two low level M class flares from solar region AR3697(S18W24,
beta-gamma-delta). This region is in overall decline, but has
shown some minor redevelopment in its intermediate and trailer
spots. Whilst magnetically complex the field gradients within
this region are not particularly steep. Solar region AR3697 also
produced C class flares and small solar regions AR3691(N26W68,beta),
AR3695(N27W52, beta) and AR3701(S04W07, beta) contributed low
level C class flares. The recent rapid growth in smaller region
AR3703(S07E06, beta) has slowed and currently small regions AR3701(S04W07,
beta) and AR3698(N23W26, beta) are both slowly growing. There
are currently twelve numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. A large
solar filament in the solar southwest quadrant has been less
active during the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 05-07 Jun. S0 solar radiation conditions
are expected. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A southeast
directed CME was observed from 04/0624UT and is not considered
significant. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Jun was light
to moderate. The solar wind speed ranged from 325 to 470 km/s
and is currently near 438 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +14 to -10 nT. The solar wind IMF was moderately
enhanced early in the UT day then declined. The solar wind IMF
Bz component oscillated southwards during the interval 03/2300-04/0020UT
and was orientated mildly southward during the interval 04/0250-04/0840UT.
A narrow small isolated equatorial coronal hole is crossing the
solar central meridian and a slight increase in solar wind speed
may eventuate in 3-4 days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22210000
Cocos Island 2 12120000
Darwin 2 22110001
Townsville 5 23220002
Learmonth 4 32220000
Alice Springs 3 22210001
Gingin 3 22210000
Canberra 3 22210000
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22210000
Hobart 2 12210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11310000
Casey 6 33321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 9 2222 2124
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 10 G0
06 Jun 8 G0
07 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 04-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 05-07 Jun
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Jun were
fair to normal, with mildly degraded conditions during local
night hours for middle to high latitudes. Normal HF conditions
are expected over 05-07 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
3 June and is current for 4-6 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 04-Jun were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was generally observed during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 05-07 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 43300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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