[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 4 09:30:41 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0517UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.2 1155UT possible lower European
M2.8 1227UT possible lower European
M4.8 1412UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jun was at the R1 level
due to M class solar flare activity. Small solar region AR3695(N27W38,
beta) produced the M4.8 flare. Solar region AR3697(S18W10, beta-gamma-delta)
produced the other M class flares and this medium sized region
is currently the largest region on the solar disk. There are
currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the disk.
Most of the regions are small. Solar regions AR3695 and AR3697
have shown decay. Solar region AR3703(S07E20, beta-gamma) has
shown rapid growth. Small solar regions AR3698(N23W13, beta)
and AR3705(N18W43, beta) are growing. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. A solar filament located in the
southwest solar quadrant at S40W10-S25-W35 has shown some instability.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2 levels over
04-06 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A narrow
westward CME was observed from 02/2336UT and appears associated
with western limb plasma motion from 02/2300UT in SDO304 imagery.
A very faint and very slow northwest CME followed the M4.8 flare
and is not considered significant. The solar wind speed on UT
day 03-Jun was light and steady until 03/2138UT when a possible
indistinct CME transient was observed with the total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) increasing to 18nT, together with a drop
in solar wind density and only a slight increase in speed. The
enhanced north-south IMF component (Bz) swung northwards after
03/2138UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 287 to 397 km/s and
is currently near 374 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +18 to -7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11111113
Cocos Island 2 11110002
Darwin 4 11111013
Townsville 5 21111113
Learmonth 4 11111113
Alice Springs 4 11111103
Gingin 5 21101213
Canberra 4 11111103
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11111213
Hobart 5 11112213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 00122301
Casey 4 23011111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1101 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 16 G0, chance G1
05 Jun 10 G0
06 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 04-06 Jun. A weak glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 01-Jun may mildly increase geomagnetic
activity on 04-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Jun were
generally normal, with fair conditions at times for middle to
high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
04-06 Jun. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced local
night hours on 04-Jun for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
3 June and is current for 4-6 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-Jun were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Canberra and
Norfolk Island during local night hours. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 04-06 Jun. A mild degradation
in HF conditions may be experienced for the southern Australian
region during local night hours on 04-Jun. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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