[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 3 09:30:40 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0450UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 0850UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M2.0 flare at 02/0850UT and an M1.2 flare at 02/0450UT.
Both R1 flares were produced by AR3697 (S18E01, gamma-delta).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3697 is the most
magnetically complex region but has shown some decay in its leader
and trailer spots. AR3701 (S04E19, beta) has exhibited spot development
over the UT day. An unnumbered region recently appeared near
S12E35 (beta) and has exhibited spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 03-05 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The halo CME observed at 01/1912UT has been
assessed to be a farside event and not geoeffective. A southwest
CME observed at 01/2000UT was modelled and shows a weak glancing
impact is possible on 04-Jun. The solar wind speed on UT day
02-Jun mildly declined, ranging from 300 to 345 km/s and is currently
near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels over 03-05 Jun, with a mild increase possible on 04-Jun
due to a weak CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10000101
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 2 11000102
Townsville 2 11000102
Learmonth 2 11010200
Alice Springs 1 10000101
Gingin 1 10000200
Canberra 0 00000101
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 00000200
Hobart 0 00000200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12110200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 6 G0
04 Jun 10 G0
05 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 03-05 Jun. A weak glancing impact from a CME
first observed on 01-Jun may mildly increase geomagnetic activity
on 04-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 02-Jun were
normal to fair. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
03-05 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on
31 May and is current for 1-3 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Jun were generally
near predicted monthly values, with Australian region MUFs 20%
depressed during local night hours. Spread F was observed at
Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 03-05 Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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