[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 22 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0355UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0834UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1632UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 198/150
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jul was R1, with three M1-class
solar flares. There are currently eleven numbered sunspots on
the solar disk. AR3751 (S10W24, beta-gamma-delta) is the most
complex sunspot currently visible; it has continued to change
rapidly throughout the day and develop and small delta spot.
AR3761 (S11W13, beta-gamma) and AR3762 (S09E51, beta-gamma) have
also shown minor growth over the past day. Solar activity is
expected to be R0-R1 over 22-24 Jul, with a chance for R2.
A region on the western limb or beyond it has been launching narrow
CME emissions for the better part of the past 24 hours. Due to
its location this is not expected to be geoeffective. An M1 flare
was observed from AR3757 (N12E16, beta) with an associated filament
eruption from 21/1632 UT and an associated weak halo CME was
observed from 21/1700 UT. This CME is expected to arrive from
24/1300 UT +/- 10 hours. No other significant CMEs were observed
on 21-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 21-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are mostly expected over 22-24 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 21-Jul was mostly at
background levels. The solar wind speed ranged between
325 to 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
+2 to -4 nT. A weak CME shock may have been observed at 1423
UT, however this was insignificant. The solar wind is expected
to be at background levels over 22-23 Jul, before becoming disturbed
on 24-Jul due to two CME impacts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11001111
Cocos Island 2 11011110
Darwin 2 11001112
Townsville 2 11001112
Learmonth 3 12001121
Alice Springs 2 10001112
Gingin 2 10100121
Canberra 1 10001011
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 10001121
Hobart 2 10001121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 2 11001121
Mawson 14 41000254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 6 G0
23 Jul 6 G0
24 Jul 16 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 21 July and
is current for 24-25 Jul. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 21-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 in Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 22-23 Jul. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
24-Jul, from 1300 UT +/- 10 hours, due to a very weak CME impact
followed by a moderate CME impact.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Jul were
mostly normal, with some equatorial scintillation during local
midnight hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal over 22-23 Jul, before becoming degraded on 24-Jul
due to two possible CME impacts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values to 10-30% enhanced
23 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values to 10-30% enhanced
24 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on
19 July and is current for 20-22 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21-Jul were near predicted values to 35% enhanced
in the Australian region. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane during
local dawn hours. Scintillation was observed from 0920 - 1310
UT in Darwin, Weipa and Niue. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values over 22-24 Jul, with enhancements up to 30% over 22-23
Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list