[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 21 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 19/2252UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.8 0720UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1849UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 207/158
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jul was R1, with two low-level
M-class solar flares. There are currently twelve numbered sunspots
on the solar disk, plus several unnumbered regions. AR3751 (S09W15,
beta-gamma) is currently the largest and most complex region
on the disk and has shown growth over the past day, and was responsible
for the M1.8 flare. AR3761 (S11E01, beta), neighbouring AR3751,
has also shown growth over the past day. AR3757 (N16E23, beta)
has shown some minor changes, but all other sunspot regions are
either mostly stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 21-23 Jul.
A weak CME that was associated with a filament eruption from 19/1823
UT may have a weak glancing impact on 24-Jul, but it is not expected
to be significant. No other CMEs were observed on 20-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 20-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 21-23 Jul.
The solar wind environment was generally near background levels on
20-Jul. The solar wind speed was steady near 350-375 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. A weak CME shock may
have occurred from 20/0855 UT, however this was generally insignificant.
The solar wind is expected to be near background levels over
21-23 Jul. A weak CME disturbance is possible on 21-July, however
this is not expected to be significant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22210011
Cocos Island 4 12220111
Darwin 4 22210111
Townsville 7 32311122
Learmonth 5 22220121
Alice Springs 3 22210011
Gingin 4 12310021
Canberra 3 22210011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12210011
Hobart 3 12210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22211021
Mawson 14 32321153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1121 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 6 G0
22 Jul 6 G0
23 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 20-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-23 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions over 21-23 Jul
are expected to be mostly normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
22 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
23 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on
19 July and is current for 20-22 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted vales
to 20% enhanced. Spread-F was observed in Hobart. Scintillation
was observed from 20/0657-0959 UT in Niue. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 21-23 Jul. Enhancements up to
10-15% are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 38400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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