[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 20 09:30:54 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 0823UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.0 1806UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2252UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 202/153
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to three M-class flares. AR3753 (N15W69, beta) produced the
first, an M3.2 at 19/0823UT, with an M2.0 at 19/1806UT produced
by AR3751 (S09E01, beta-gamma-delta) and an M1.0 at 19/2252UT
produced by AR3758 (S08W61, alpha). AR3751 remains the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the visible solar disk
- and continues to grow, with significant development in its
trailer spot region. There are currently eighteen numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk, with AR3759 (S07W21, beta)
exhibiting rapid growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions
are relatively small in size, and are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 20-22 Jul.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in available coronagraph
imagery at the time of writing. Two large filament eruptions
were observed, visible in SDO and GONG H-alpha imagery, the first
near N50W70 from 19/1031UT, and the second near S40E10 from 19/1823UT.
The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Jul was mostly stable, ranging
from 290 to 360 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. Two weak
shock arrivals are possible at 20/1100UT and at 21/0400UT +/-
12 hours. The solar wind speed may become mildly enhanced over
the next few days due to a coronal hole wind stream from a coronal
hole now located in the north west solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 2 21110110
Darwin 3 12100112
Townsville 3 22100112
Learmonth 2 11100111
Alice Springs 2 22100001
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 0 01000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12101022
Mawson 7 12112142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
21 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
22 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 19-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 20-22 Jul, with a chance
for isolated G1 periods during 20-21 Jul from recent weak CME
activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 20-22 Jul, with mildly degraded conditions
at middle to high latitudes during local night hours possible
during 20-21 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Jul were
near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced in the Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Brisbane during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 20-22 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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