[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 19 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1014UT possible lower European
M2.0 1027UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 209/160
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jul was at the R1 level
with solar region AR3751(S09E16, beta-gamma-delta) producing
two M2 class flares. This region is currently the largest and
most magnetically complex on the visible solar disk. This region
continues to grow. Smaller regions AR3744(N15W36, beta), AR3753(N15W54,
beta) and AR3754(N25E29, alpha) produced C class flares. Regions
AR3744, AR3754 are declining and AR3753 is growing. Small region
AR3759(S07W06, beta) has shown rapid growth but has been mainly
flare quiet. There are currently eighteen numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. Most of the regions are small. A small
10 degree long solar filament located at N20W30 erupted from
18/0319UT visible in Learmonth GONG H-alpha imagery, no CME appeared
to be associated. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over
19-21 Jul. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 18-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 19-21 Jul.
The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Jul declined. The solar wind
speed ranged between 316 and 369 km/s, and is currently near
331 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+4 to -3 nT. Two weak shock arrivals are possible at 20/1100UT
and at 21/0400UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed may become
mildly enhanced over the next few days due to a coronal hole
wind stream from a coronal hole now located in the north west
solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12111001
Townsville 3 11121002
Learmonth 2 12110000
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 2 11111001
Hobart 1 01011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22121100
Mawson 5 31122111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 6 G0
20 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
21 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region region on UT day 18-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 18-20 Jul, with a chance
for isolated G1 periods during 20-21 Jul from recent weak CME
activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 19-21 Jul. Mildly degraded HF conditions
at middle to high latitudes during local night hours may be experienced
during 20-21 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
16 July and is current for 17-19 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18-Jul were near predicted monthly values to
35% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart, Brisbane and Darwin during local night hours. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Darwin at 18/0929-0950UT. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 19-21 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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