[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 18 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.0 0639UT confirmed lower Mid East/Indian
M3.4 0708UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0948UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1951UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.0 1958UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 224/174
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 225/175
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jul was at the R2 level
due to an M5.0 flare from solar region AR3743((S07W41, beta).
This region also produced the M3.4 flare. Solar region AR3738(N09W83,
-) which is now off disk, produced an M1 flare. There is no magnetic
classification for this region as its now off disk. Solar region
AR3753(N10W43, beta) produced an M1 and an M2 flare. Solar region
AR3751(S09E31, beta-gamma-delta) now the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk, produced C class flare activity.
This region is currently showing growth. Minor spot development
has been observed in solar region AR3747(S23W30, beta). There
are currently seventeen numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. Most of the regions are small. Solar activity is
expected to be R1-R2 over 18-20 Jul. A narrow westward and slow
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 17/0748UT presumed
associated with the M5/M3 flare activity from AR3743. The Enlil
model run shows predominately an Earth miss with a possible weak
influence on the Earth's magnetosphere arriving at 20/0400UT
+/- 12 hours. Late in the UT day on 16-Jul a weak predominately
south west semi halo slow shockwave structure was observed in
LASCO C2 imagery possibly associated with M1 flare activity.
Event modelling shows an Earth arrival on 20-Jul at 1100UT +/-
12 hours, though this CME was very faint and appeared to be more
of a shockwave than plasma ejecta. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 17-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 18-20 Jul. The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Jul
was light to moderate possibly due to the mild influence of a
solar coronal hole now in the northwest solar quadrant. The solar
wind speed ranged between 350 and 390 km/s, and is currently
near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mildly
enhanced today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22201011
Cocos Island 3 12211010
Darwin 3 21201011
Townsville 4 21211112
Learmonth 4 12301020
Alice Springs 3 22201011
Gingin 4 22300021
Canberra 1 11100010
Hobart 1 11101010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00012000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson 11 23311243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 3221 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 8 G0
19 Jul 6 G0
20 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region region on UT day 17-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 18-20 Jul, with a chance
for isolated G1 periods on 20-Jul from recent weak CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 18-20 Jul. Mildly degraded HF conditions
at middle to high latitudes during local night hours may be experienced
on 20-Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
16 July and is current for 17-19 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17-Jul were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. Brief weak ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Weipa at 17/1250UT. A minor fadeout impacting
lower HF frequencies for western Australian sites was observed
at 17/0700UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 18-20 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 27100 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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