[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 17 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0301UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.6 0737UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X2.0 1326UT probable all European
M1.6 2125UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.9 2206UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 242/191
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 238/187 238/187
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jul was at the R3 level
due to an X2.0 flare at 16/1326UT produced by AR3738 (S11W79,
beta). Several other R1 level flares were observed over the UT
day produced by AR3744 (N15W12, beta) and AR3753 (N10W33, gamma).
There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Many of these regions grew rapidly over 15-Jul,
but began to decay on 16-Jul. AR3745 (S16W19, beta-gamma) and
AR3751 (S09E41, beta-gamma) appear unstable, with these two regions
being the most complex on the disk. Solar activity is expected
to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 17-19 Jul. A CME was associated
with the X2.0 flare, observed from 16/1326 UT. This CME is mostly
directed to the west and is not expected to impact Earth. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 16-Jul. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 16-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are mostly expected over
17-19 Jul, with a slight chance for S1. The solar wind environment
on UT day 16-Jul was enhanced. There is a large coronal hole
in the northern solar hemisphere, and while it is likely too
high of a latitude for the fast wind speeds to connect with Earth,
its associated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) may be driving
the enhanced solar wind strength. The solar wind speed ranged
between 325 and 410 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +13 to -10 nT.
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on
UT day 17-Jul before returning to background levels over 18-19
Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Cocos Island 5 22212210
Darwin 7 22222311
Townsville 7 22222312
Learmonth 7 22222311
Alice Springs 5 22221210
Gingin 4 21211211
Canberra 4 22111111
Hobart 3 21111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 8 23323111
Mawson 17 63311203
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1110 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 10 G0
18 Jul 8 G0
19 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 17-19 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal over 17-19 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jul 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jul 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
16 July and is current for 17-19 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Jul were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Niue from 16/0714-0959 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 17-19
Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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