[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 16 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0345UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0937UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 233/183
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jul was R1, with three low-level
M-class solar flares. All flares originated from AR3738 (S11W67,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently eleven numbered sunspots
on the solar disk. Most regions have shown rapid changes over
the past day, with many new regions growing. AR3738, AR3743 (S07W16,
beta-gamma) and AR3751 (S09W64, beta-gamma) are the most complex
regions on the disk and have the most flare potential. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 16-18 Jul with a chance
for R3.
A narrow but dark dimming event was observed at 14/2159
UT near AR3744 (N16E10, beta). While no associated CME can be
observed, image quality at this time is severely degraded. No
geoeffective CMEs were observed on UT day 15-Jul. A weak and
narrow CME was observed in association with the M2 flare from
AR3738 from 0936 UT, however it is directed well to the west.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 15-Jul was near background
levels. The solar wind speed ranged between 290 to 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -7
nT, with a mild shock at 15/2130 UT. The solar wind environment
is expected to be near background levels over 16-18 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12200011
Cocos Island 2 12210000
Darwin 3 12200012
Townsville 4 22200112
Learmonth 2 12200011
Alice Springs 2 12100011
Gingin 2 11200011
Canberra 1 11100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 111000--
Hobart 2 11100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12210012
Mawson 6 22100024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 5 2202 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 8 G0
17 Jul 10 G0
18 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 15-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Jul were
mostly normal, with some degraded conditions at low latitudes
during local night hours. HF radio communication conditions are
expected to be normal over 16-18 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on
13 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Jul were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed in Norfolk Island
and Brisbane during local night hours. Spread-F was observed
in Niue during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values over 16-18 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list