[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 July 24 issued 0028 UT on 15 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 15 10:28:27 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
Comment: Reissued to correct R level for 14-Jul in the solar section.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0116UT possible lower West Pacific
X1.2 0234UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M3.0 0413UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1020UT possible lower European
M1.0 2057UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 234/184
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jul was R3 due to an X1.2
flare from solar region AR3738(S09W53, beta-gamma-delta). This
solar region also produced three M1 flares and an M3 flare and
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the visible
solar disk. This region has shown further development in the
smaller spots just north of the main leader spot umbra and a
mix of growth and decay in its trailer spots. Solar regions AR3744(N16E13,
beta) and AR3751(S10E66, beta) produced C class flares. Solar
region AR3751 has recently rotated onto the disk along with two
other smaller regions also currently located in the southeast
solar quadrant and another smaller region has rotated onto the
disk over the northeast solar limb. Solar region AR3744 has shown
development of small leader spots. Solar region AR3743(S08W02,
beta) has shown development in its intermediate spots. A very
small new region has emerged on disk at N07W09. There are currently
twelve numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1-R2 over 15-17 Jul. There is a chance for
an isolated R3 flare from AR3738. No significant Earth directed
CMEs have been observed, with no CME evident following the R3(X1.2)
flare. Solar region AR3738 is progressing further west on the
solar disk which is likely to reduce any future CME activity
to glancing blows. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 14-Jul. No solar proton event followed the X1.2 flare
which had a relatively weak solar radio burst signature. S0,
chance S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
15-17 Jul. The solar wind speed was light and variable ranging
from 273 to 370 km/s and is currently at 313km/sec. A minor discontinuity
in solar wind parameters was observed at 14/0349UT with the solar
wind speed increasing from 278 to 365 km/sec. The solar wind
speed then slowly declined. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +3 to -4 nT. The expected moderate enhancement
of the solar speed wind from a small coronal hole did not eventuate.
A 35 degree wide coronal hole centred at N35E15 is approaching
the solar central meridian. This hole is estimated to increase
solar wind speed during the interval 18-20 Jul, though the moderately
high solar latitude may reduce any induced effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 2 22110001
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 4 12211012
Learmonth 3 21211001
Alice Springs 2 22100001
Gingin 2 21110001
Canberra 1 11100000
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 11211001
Mawson 8 41101014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 12 G0, slight chance of G1
16 Jul 8 G0
17 Jul 10 G0, slight chance of G1 late in UT day
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Jul. The anticipated mild
increase in geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream
has failed to eventuate. G0 conditions generally expected for
the interval 15-17 Jul with a slight chance of G1 on 15-Jul.
A coronal hole wind stream may induce mild geomagnetic activity
18-20 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Jul were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 15-17 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on
13 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Jul were near predicted values in the Australian
region during the local day, with enhancements of 15-40% observed
during local night hours. Weak ionospheric scintillation was
occasionally observed at Darwin during the interval 14/1210-1340UT.
A fadeout was observed in the eastern Australian region associated
with the X1.2 flare at 14/0234UT impacting lower HF frequencies.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 15-17 Jul,
Further shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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