[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 July 24 issued 2333 UT on 22 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 23 09:33:40 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 21/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0333UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.9 0404UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.9 0434UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0935UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1300UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jul was R1. Solar region
AR3762(S13E41, beta-gamma-delta) produced the M3.9 flare and
three of the M1 class flares. This region is slowly developing.
Solar region AR3744 located just behind the northwest limb at
solar latitude N15 produced an M1.5 flare and an M3 class flare
late in the UT day yesterday. Solar region AR3761(S10W25, beta)
has shown growth in its leader spots. Solar regions AR3751(S08W38,
beta) and AR3759(S08W65, beta) have shown decay in their trailer
spots. Other regions are small. There are currently ten numbered
sunspots on the solar disk. A small 9 degree long filament located
at S20E10 erupted during 22/0406-0639UT visible in Learmonth
GONG H-alpha imagery, however no CME appeared associated. Solar
activity is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 23-25 Jul. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours. The M1.4
flare at 22/0935UT from AR3762 had an associated Type II radio
sweep but no CME was subsequently observed in LASCO coronagraph
imagery. A non Earth directed behind the southeast limb CME was
observed from 22/1836UT. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 22-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 23-25 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT
day 22-Jul was slow and steady. The solar wind speed ranged between
281 to 312 km/s and is currently near 290 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component range was +6 to -7 nT, with a mildly southward
orientation observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind is
expected to be at background levels over 23 Jul, before becoming
enhanced on 24-Jul due to an anticipated weak halo CME arrival
from an M1 flare/filament eruption on 21-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 21231131
Cocos Island 4 21131020
Darwin 5 21131121
Townsville 7 21231132
Learmonth 8 22141131
Alice Springs 6 11131131
Gingin 7 21131140
Canberra 7 11232131
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 11232131
Hobart 9 11342131
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 17 11363321
Casey 7 21132131
Mawson 26 53322364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 4 1000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 6 G0
24 Jul 23 Initially G0 then G1-G2 periods second half of
the UT day.
25 Jul 15 G1 periods early in the UT day, then G0.
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 21 July and
is current for 24-25 Jul. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G2 at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected on 23-Jul. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 24-Jul from approximately 1300 UT
due to an anticipated weak halo CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
25 Jul Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Jul were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal over 23 Jul, before becoming degraded on 24-Jul
at middle to high latitudes due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity due to a CME. Isolated minor HF fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 77 was issued
on 22 July and is current for 24-25 Jul. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 78 was issued on 22 July and is current for 23-25 Jul.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Jul were near
predicted values to 30% enhanced in the Australian region. A
minor HF fadeout was observed 22/0402-0408UT. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart and Learmonth during local night hours. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced over 23-24
Jul, with a mild to moderate degradation in HF communications
quality possible during local night hours on 24-Jul in association
with an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Brief depressions
of 15% are possible early in the UT day on 25-Jul for the southern
Australian region only. Isolated minor HF fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 24800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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