[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 13 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 210/161
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jul was R0. Solar region
AR3738(S08W24, beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the visible solar disk. This region produced
minor C class flares in the past 24 hours and has shown growth
in its trailer spots. Other solar regions are relatively small.
Smaller region AR3743(S09E26, beta) produced a C6.5 flare at
12/1328UT and very small region AR3740(S19W79, beta) produced
a C4.6 flare at 12/1213UT. Solar region AR3743 has shown intermediate
spot redistribution and AR3744(N16E40, beta) has shown some intermediate
spot development. There are currently eight numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R1, chance R2 over 13-15 Jul. No Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. A non Earth directed southeast CME associated
with a solar prominence eruption on the southeast solar limb
at solar latitude S30 was observed from 12/0612UT. A far side
west directed CME was observed from 11/2312UT. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 12-Jul. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 13-15 Jul. The solar wind
speed ranged from 345 to 386 km/s and is currently at 355km/sec.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5
nT. A small isolated near equatorial coronal hole with centre
located at N15W35 is expected to enhance the solar wind speed
over 13-14 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22210001
Cocos Island 2 2-210000
Darwin 3 12210002
Townsville 4 23210002
Learmonth 2 21210000
Alice Springs 3 22210001
Gingin 2 22200000
Canberra 2 21110001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 21110000
Hobart 2 11210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00210000
Casey 6 33220101
Mawson 11 42231104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3221 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 15 G0, chance G1
14 Jul 12 G0, chance G1 early in UT day
15 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Jul. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 13-Jul due to a coronal hole wind
stream, with mildly enhanced geomagnetic conditions extending
into 14-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Jul were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 13-15 Jul, with mildly degraded HF conditions
expected for middle to high latitudes on 13-14 Jul during local
night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
11 July and is current for 12-13 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Jul were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Spread F was observed during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values over 13-15 Jul, with
mildly degraded conditions possible during local night hours
13-14 Jul for the southern Australian region. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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