[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 July 24 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 14 09:31:40 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0318UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M5.3 1242UT possible lower European
M1.8 1530UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1930UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.0 2301UT confirmed lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 238/187
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 235/185
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jul was R2. Solar region
AR3738(S09W40, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the visible solar disk. This region produced
two M5 class flares and two M1 class flares. This region has
shown a mix of growth and decay in its trailer spots and penumbral
growth in its large leader spot. Smaller solar region AR3747(S25E19,alpha)
produced an M1 class flare. Solar regions AR3745(S17E34, beta) and
AR3744(N16E26, beta-gamma) are growing. Solar region AR3743(S09E13,
beta) showed initial decay then growth and redistribution of
its intermediate spots. There are currently eight numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk and three new unnumbered regions
are in the southeast solar quadrant. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Two small solar filament eruptions
have been observed. An 8 degree long solar filament eruption
was observed at 13/1516UT in GONG H-alpha located at S22E20,
between solar regions AR3743 and AR3745. An extended period of
emission from 13/1508-1606UT was observed in SDO94 imagery, however
no CME appeared to be associated with the filament plasma falling
back onto the chromosphere. A 10 degree long solar filament with
centre located at S10W05 was active from 13/2100UT and may have
partially erupted. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over
14-16 Jul. There is a chance for an isolated R3 flare from AR3738.
No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The M5.3
flare from solar region AR3738 was associated with some on disk
coronal diming and localized plasma motion, however no significant
associated CME was observed in LASCO imagery, with a slow narrow
northwest CME first visible in LASCO C2 from 13/1348UT. The first
filament eruption did not appear to have an associated CME. Available
LASCO imagery is up to 13/1900UT and LASCO imagery will be chacked
to confirm any possible CME associated with the second suspected
partial filament eruption and the later M5 class flare. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 13-Jul. S0,
chance S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
14-16 Jul. The solar wind speed ranged from 295 to 346 km/s and
is currently at 325km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +5 to -4 nT. The expected moderate enhancement
of the solar speed wind from a small coronal hole did not eventuate.
However, moderately enhanced solar wind speed from the small
coronal hole remains expected over 14-15 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 12100002
Townsville 2 12000002
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 2 12100001
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 0 11000000
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11101000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22201100
Mawson 3 31100021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
15 Jul 12 G0, slight chance of G1
16 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-Jul. The anticipated mild
increase in geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream
has not yet eventuated. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions
are now possible on 14-15 Jul from a small coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Jul were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 14-16 Jul, with mildly degraded HF conditions
now expected for middle to high latitudes on 14-15 Jul during
local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on
13 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-Jul were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Minor Spread F was observed during local night hours.
Weak ionospheric scintillation was occasionally observed at Niue
and Darwin during the interval 13/0800-1400UT. A fadeout was
observed in the eastern Australian region with the M5.0 flare
at 13/2301UT, impacting lower HF frequencies. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 14-16 Jul, with mildly degraded
conditions possible during local night hours 14-15 Jul for the
southern Australian region. Further shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 53600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list