[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 12 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0417UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0625UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 205/156
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity R0-R2 R0-R2 R0-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jul was R1, with two M1
class solar flares from AR3738 (S08W13, beta-gamma-delta). There
are currently seven numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3738 maintains
being the largest and most complex spot; it has continued rapid
growth and has several small delta spots forming, although it
has only produced low-level activity so far. AR3743 (S09E37,
beta) has also shown moderate growth over the past day. All other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R2 over 12-14 Jul.
One or possibly two halo CMEs were observed from the northeastern solar
limb from 10/2136 UT. These events have been analysed to be farside
and therefore not geoeffective. No other significant CMEs were observed
in the past day.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 11-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 12-14 Jul.
The solar wind environment was near background levels on UT day
11-Jul. The solar wind speed ranged from 398 to 355 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The
solar wind is likely to remain at background levels on 12-Jul,
before Earth possibly connects with a coronal hole to enhance
the solar wind speed over 13-14 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12100101
Cocos Island 0 1-010000
Darwin 2 12101101
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 3 22201101
Alice Springs 2 11201100
Gingin 2 12100100
Canberra 2 12000101
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11110100
Hobart 1 11000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22211110
Mawson 11 43302123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2111 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 10 G0
13 Jul 12 G0-G1
14 Jul 10 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 11-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 13-Jul due to a coronal hole, with
enhanced conditions possibly following into 14-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Jul were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 12-14 Jul, but conditions may be degraded
during local night hours over 13-14 Jul due to a coronal hole.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on
10 July and is current for 10-12 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Jul were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Sporadic E was common in the Australian region during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
over 12-14 Jul, with mild depressions possible by 14-Jul. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 70300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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