[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 11 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0559UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0945UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1204UT possible lower European
M1.1 1304UT possible lower European
M1.0 1537UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity R0-R2 R0-R2 R0-R2
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jul was R1, with five M1-class
solar flares. All flares originated from AR3738 (S08E00, beta-gamma-delta),
which is currently crossing the central meridian and is the most
complex sunspot region on the disk. In total there are six sunspot
regions visible; most regions are insignificant, with AR3738
being the dominant region undergoing rapid changes in the past
day and an overall increase to its size. AR3743 (S09E51, alpha)
has shown some minor growth. All other sunspots are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R2 over 11-13 Jul.
No CMEs were observed in available imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Jul.
The solar wind was at background levels on UT day 10-Jul. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -4 nT. The
solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 400 km/s. A coronal hole
may increase the solar wind speed by 12 or 13-Jul, but otherwise
the solar wind is expected to be near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12200201
Cocos Island 2 11110101
Darwin 4 12210202
Townsville 4 12201202
Learmonth 4 22210201
Alice Springs 3 12200201
Gingin 4 22200202
Canberra 2 11100201
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11100201
Hobart 2 11100201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 5 22221211
Mawson 9 32211124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2212 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 6 G0
12 Jul 10 G0-G1
13 Jul 12 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 10-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-13 Jul, with possible
periods of G1 over 12-13 Jul due to a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Jul were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 11-13 Jul, but may become mildly degraded
by the end of the period due to possible coronal hole activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on
10 July and is current for 10-12 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Jul were near predicted values. Spread F
was observed in Hobart during local night hours and sporadic
E was observed in Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Jul, with
slight depressions possible on 13-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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