[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 10 09:30:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three
unnumbered regions. AR3738 (S08E16, beta-gamma) is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
spot development in its intermediate and leader spots over the
UT day. AR3743 (S09E66, beta) has shown spot growth. Three unnumbered
regions are visible near N16E81 (alpha), S20E75 (alpha) and S23E75
(alpha). All unnumbered regions are magnetically simple and appear
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Jul.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 09-Jul was mostly stable, ranging from 355 to 400 km/s
and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 10-11 Jul. A small northern
hemisphere coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian
and may influence the solar wind speed on 12-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 4 22121012
Learmonth 3 22121010
Alice Springs 2 11111011
Gingin 2 11111010
Canberra 2 12011001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11021010
Hobart 2 11021011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 5 23212011
Mawson 9 23223123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 6 G0
11 Jul 6 G0
12 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 09-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 10-12 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly normal
on UT day 09-Jul. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 10-12 Jul, with mildly degraded conditions
possible at high latitudes during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Jul were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Jul. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 54900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list