[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jul 9 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 07/2316UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 1241UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jul was at the R1 level
due to an M1.1 flare at 08/1241UT from an unnumbered region on
the eastern limb. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3738 (S08E31,
beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically complex region
on the disk and has shown growth in its leader spots, whilst
its intermediate spots have decayed. An unnumbered region is
visible near S25E73 (alpha) and appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 09-11 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Jul was
mostly stable, ranging from 370 to 425 km/s and is currently
near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+8 to -8 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions was
observed from 08/0845-1005UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 09-11 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22223121
Cocos Island 6 21123121
Darwin 7 22223121
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 7 22223121
Alice Springs 7 22223121
Gingin 7 22122132
Canberra 5 12222121
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12122121
Hobart 5 12122121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 00143111
Casey 7 22222132
Mawson 23 24333146
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2111 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 6 G0
10 Jul 8 G0
11 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 09-11 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly normal
on UT day 08-Jul. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 09-11 Jul, with mildly degraded conditions
possible at high latitudes during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on
7 July and is current for 8-9 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Jul were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhancements of 15% were observed in southern Australia during
local night hours. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 09-11 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 68300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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