[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 8 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 06/2315UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1956UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2127UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.4 2231UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Jul was R1, with three M1.0
solar flares and an M2 flare. All flares both originated from
a region beyond the eastern solar limb not yet in view, but is
a likely returning region. There are currently seven numbered
sunspots on the solar disk. AR3738 (S08E42, beta) has shown both
growth and decay in its trailer and intermediate spots. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 over 08-10 Jul.
Several weak CMEs were observed on UT day 07-Jul, but none are
considered geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 07-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 08-10 Jul.
The solar wind environment was generally near background levels
on 07-Jul. The solar wind speed ranged from near 400 to 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to -5
nT. The solar wind is generally expected to be near background
levels over 08-10 Jul, however a mild increase may be expected
by the middle of the period due to several small coronal holes
currently in the solar southern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11100012
Darwin 2 12100012
Townsville 3 21100112
Learmonth 2 11100012
Alice Springs 2 21100012
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 1 11000011
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11000012
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey 6 23311012
Mawson 17 43211016
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 6 G0
09 Jul 6 G0
10 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 07-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 08-10 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on UT day 07-Jul. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 08-10 Jul, with mildly degraded conditions
possible at local night hours. These degradations are likely
to be most pronounced by the end of the period due to several
small coronal holes that may connect with Earth.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Jul were
mostly near predicted values. Conditions were degraded in Townsville
and Learmonth during local night hours, however analysis may
have been impeded due to equipment issues. Spread-F was observed
in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values over 08-10 Jul, however mild depressions of
10-15% during local night hours are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 57100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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