[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 7 09:30:42 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jul was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently ten numbered sunspots on the
solar disk. All sunspot regions are relatively stable, with only
a few regions showing minor change in their trailing regions.
AR3738 (S08E55, beta) may have some weak delta spots, but this
region has been mostly flare quiet. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 07-09 Jul.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 06-Jul, but none are considered
to be geoeffective. All observed CMEs have likely come from the vicinity
of AR3729 now rotating over the western limb, or else from a region completely
over
the western limb.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 06-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 07-09 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 06-Jul was
quiet. The solar wind speed ranged from near 375 to 330 km/s
on a slight decline. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +6 to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to be at mostly background
levels over 07-09 Jul, however the solar wind speed may observe
a mild increase by the end of the period due to some weak coronal
hole features currently crossing the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 10100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 20100002
Learmonth 1 11200000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 0 00000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey 1 11110000
Mawson 2 21110001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2412 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 6 G0
08 Jul 6 G0
09 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 06-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-09 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions were generally normal on
UT day 06-Jul, with some degradations at low latitudes near local
midnight hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal over 07-09 Jul, with degradations at local nighttime
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Jul were
mostly near predicted values to 20% depressed in the Australian
region. Spread-F was observed in Hobart and Niue, and sporadic-E
was observed in Norfolk Island during local night hours. Conditions
at Darwin appeared to be degraded through local night hours,
however analysis may have been impeded by an equipment issue.
Scintillation was observed at Niue from 06/0658 to 0747 UT. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 07-09 Jul,
with mild depressions possible at local nighttime.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 54000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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