[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jul 6 09:30:48 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jul was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3733 (N06W51, beta) has shown both growth
and decay over the past day, but otherwise all other sunspot
regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
06-08 Jul.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 05-Jul, but none
are considered to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
05-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 06-08 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 05-Jul was mostly quiet.
The solar wind speed was near 350 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to -7 nT.
The solar wind is expected to remain near background
levels over 06-08 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 14222210
Darwin 7 14222200
Townsville 9 24232211
Learmonth 7 14222210
Alice Springs 7 14222210
Gingin 6 13222210
Canberra 5 03122210
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 13122210
Hobart 4 13112110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 11------
Casey 5 23122110
Mawson 11 44222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2311 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 6 G0
07 Jul 6 G0
08 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 05-Jul
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. In the BOM magnetometer
data for 05 Jul, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0512UT,
although this was not associated with any significant activity.
The cause my have been a recent CME that was first seen on 01-Jul
passing nearby the Earth. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 06-08 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal,
although low and high latitudes were mildly degraded during local
night hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be normal over 06-08 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Jul were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed in Hobart. Degraded nighttime conditions
were observed in low latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 06-08 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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