[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 5 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1426UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 2005UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 172/126 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jul was at the R1 level
due to two M-class flares, the largest of which was an M1.4 flare
at 04/2005UT produced by AR3730 (S19W93, beta). There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3733
(N06W38, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has exhibited
spot growth over the UT day, particularly in its trailer spot.
AR3729 (S05W39, beta-gamma) has continued to decay. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 05-07 Jul. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A low velocity
west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 04/1448UT. This CME is associated with an M1.0 flare
observed at 04/1425UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not
contain a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT
day 04-Jul declined, ranging from 320 to 380 km/s and is currently
near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -9 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions was
observed from 04/1001-1311UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 05-07 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11212322
Darwin 5 21211222
Townsville 5 21211222
Learmonth 7 21212322
Alice Springs 4 11101321
Gingin 7 11212332
Canberra 3 11101221
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11102321
Hobart 5 11102321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 11002321
Casey 6 12221222
Mawson 11 33312323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2120 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 8 G0
06 Jul 6 G0
07 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 04-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 05-07 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Jul were
mostly normal, with some mildly degraded conditions during local
night hours at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 05-07 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jul were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Enhancements of 25% were observed in northern Australia during
local night hours. Spread-F was observed at Canberra and Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 05-07 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 62900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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