[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 4 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0741UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jul was at the R1 level
due to an M1.5 flare at 03/0741UT, produced by AR3729 (S04W24,
beta-gamma). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
and one unnumbered region visible on the solar disk. AR3729 is
the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has shown decay over the UT day. AR3732 (S20W53, beta) has
shown spot growth. AR3733 (N04W26, beta) has exhibited spot development
over the UT day. An unnumbered region is visible near S20E70
(beta) and is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 04-06 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A
west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 03/0800UT. This CME is associated with the aforementioned
M1.5 flare from AR3729. Modelling indicates this CME does not
contain a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT
day 03-Jul increased, ranging from 320 to 400 km/s and is currently
near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over
04-06 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01100001
Darwin 2 -2200011
Townsville 2 11200111
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Gingin 0 01100000
Canberra 1 01100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 01100000
Hobart 1 01100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 23101000
Mawson 8 43213100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2201 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 10 G0
05 Jul 6 G0
06 Jul 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 1 July and
is current for 3-4 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 04-06 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Jul were
mostly normal, with some mildly degraded conditions during local
night hours at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 04-06 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Jul were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Depressions of 15% were observed in southern Australia during
local night hours. Spread-F was observed in Canberra and Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 04-06 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 52000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list