[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jul 3 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jul was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently twelve numbered sunspots on
teh solar disk, with a majority of them in the southern solar
hemisphere. AR3729 (S04W14, beta-gamma) is the region that has
shown the most growth recently, however it has remained mostly
quiet. AR3727 (S20W29, beta), AR3730 (S19W58, beta) and AR3733
(N05W12, beta) have also shown some minor growth in the past
day. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 03-05 Jul.
A CME was observed from 02/0400 UT directed mostly southward and
was associated with a filament eruption near S40E10. This CME
has been analysed to mostly pass underneath the Earth; any impact
is expected to be negligible. No other potentially geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 02-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
02-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 03-05 Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 02-Jul was near background
levels. The solar wind speed was on a declining trend and ranged
from near 425 to 375 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 3 nT and the north-south IMF component range
(Bz) was +2 to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become disturbed
on 03-Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a recent CME, with effects
carrying into 04-Jul. The solar wind is expected to return to near background
levels by 05-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 2 12100010
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 2 11100111
Canberra 1 11000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 01000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 22110001
Mawson 16 44311115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2221 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 18 G0-G1, chance G2
04 Jul 12 G0-G1
05 Jul 7 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 1 July and
is current for 3-4 Jul. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Jul. G0
geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected on UT day 03-Jul,
but may reach G1 with a chance for G2 by the end of the day.
G1 conditions may continue into 04-Jul. Geomagnetic conditions
should return to quiet levels by 05-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 02-Jul were
mostly normal, with some mildly degraded conditions during local
night hours in the southern hemisphere. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be initially normal on UT day 03-Jul,
before becoming mildly degraded by the end of the day, continuing
into 04-Jul. HF radio conditions may return to normal by 05-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
05 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Jul were
near predicted values in the Australian region. Spread-F was
observed in Brisbane and Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic-E
was observed in Cocos Islands during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be mostly normal on 03-Jul before becoming up
to 15% depressed on 04-Jul due to an anticipated geomagnetic
storm. MUFs should mostly be near predicted values on 05-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list