[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Jul 2 09:30:47 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    1102UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 171/125

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jul was R1, with an isolated 
M2 solar flare from AR3730 (S19W46, alpha). There are currently 
twelve numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, with a majority 
of them located in the southern solar hemisphere. AR3729 (S05E01, 
beta) has shown the most significant growth over the past 24 
hours, and AR3730 has shown some minor growth. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be R0-R1 over 02-04 Jul. 

A CME directed to the solar southwest was observed from 01/1148 UT, 
likely in association with with M2 flare. This CME is not expected 
to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on 01-Jul. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 01-Jul. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 02-04 Jul.

 The solar wind environment on UT day 01-Jul was at background 
levels. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 5 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -3 nT. 
The solar wind speed was on a general declining trend, ranging from 
500 to 450 km/s. The solar wind is expected to be near background 
conditions on 02-Jul, before becoming disturbed on 03-Jul due to an
 anticipated CME arrival, with effects carrying into 04-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111200
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville           3   12111201
      Learmonth            4   22211210
      Alice Springs        2   11111200
      Gingin               5   22211310
      Canberra             2   11111200
      Kennaook Cape Grim   2   11111200
      Hobart               2   11111200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   11222210
      Casey                6   23311210
      Mawson              12   33331313

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2212 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     6    G0
03 Jul    18    G0-G1, chance G2
04 Jul    12    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 1 July and 
is current for 3-4 Jul. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed 
on UT day 01-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 02-Jul. 
G0-G1 conditions are expected on 03-Jul due to an anticipated 
CME arrival, with a chance for G2. Conditions should return to 
G0 by 04-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Jul were 
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be 
normal on UT day 02-Jul, but become mildly degraded on 03-Jul 
with conditions carrying into 04-Jul.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Jul   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      120
Jul      118
Aug      117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
04 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
values on 01-Jul in the Australian region. Spread-F was observed 
in Norfolk Island during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values on 02-Jul. MUFs may become 15-20% 
depressed over 03-04 Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au