[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 June 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jul 1 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jun was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently 15
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3732 (S18W10,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has shown spot growth over the UT day. AR3729 (S05E15, beta)
has shown growth in its intermediate spots. AR3734 (N11E62, beta)
has shown decay in its trailer spots, whilst its leader spots
have grown. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Despite the large number of active regions, most are magnetically
simple and flare inactive. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R0 level over 01-03 Jul, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Jun
increased, ranging from 420 to 530 km/s and is currently near
520 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over
01-02 Jul, before increasing on 03-Jul due to the arrival of
a CME first observed on 29-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 32222312
Cocos Island 5 -3122111
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 9 32222322
Learmonth 8 32222321
Alice Springs 7 32222211
Gingin 8 32212322
Canberra 6 21122311
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 21122312
Hobart 6 21122312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 11 11133511
Casey 10 43321212
Mawson 20 33322623
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 4323 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 8 G0
02 Jul 6 G0
03 Jul 18 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island and an isolated period of G2
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
01-02 Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 03-Jul,
with a chance of G2 due to the arrival of a CME first observed
on 29-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Jun were
generally normal, with some degradations at high latitudes during
local night hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 01-02 Jul, with normal to fair conditions
at middle to high latitudes on 03-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 121
Jun 116
Jul 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Jun were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F was
observed at Canberra and Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 01-03 Jul.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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