[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 30 10:30:59 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0140UT possible lower West Pacific
M6.8 0438UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jan was at the R2 level
due to a long duration M6.8 flare at 29/0438UT. There was also
an M1.2 flare at 29/0140UT. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions.
AR3559 (N29W82, beta) was responsible for both of the M-class
flares on 29-Jan and is soon to rotate off the solar disk. AR3564
(S13E26, beta-delta) and AR3565 (N04E52, beta) both showed development
over the UT day. AR3564 is the most magnetically complex region
on the solar disk, but is small and has no history of flaring.
All other numbered regions are in decay. An unnumbered region
is visible at around S09W44 with alpha magnetic complexity and
a further unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar
disk at around N20E75. This region is still partially obscured
due to limb foreshortening and so the magnetic characteristics
are difficult to determine. Solar activity is expected to be
at R0-R1 levels, with a chance of R2 over 30-Jan to 1-Feb. The
M6.8 flare produced a rapid increase in the >10MeV proton flux
and produced S1 conditions from 29/0615UT onwards and S2 conditions
from 29/1735UT to 29/1905UT. S1 conditions are expected to persist
on 30-Jan, with a declining trend. S0 conditions are expected
on 31-Jan to 1-Feb. A fast, partial halo CME was observed from
29/0436UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated
with the long duration M6.8 flare at 29/0438UT. An associated
eruption is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from
29/0418UT on the limb at around N30. Modelling indicates that
this CME has a geoeffective component which will impact Earth
on 31-Jan at 0500UT +/- 12 hours. Multiple other CMEs were observed
off the eastern limb but none have associated on disk eruptions
and are not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 29-Jan declined in the first part of the day before increasing
again. The solar wind speed ranged between 376 km/s and 503 km/s
and is currently near 500 km/s. The elevated solar wind conditions
are due to high speed wind stream effects from a pair of coronal
holes currently in a geoeffective position. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects over 30-31 Jan. A further increase is expected
on 31-Jan due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed
on 29-Jan. Enhanced solar wind speed is expected on 1-Feb due
to a combination of waning coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and CME effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 32222222
Cocos Island 5 22112211
Darwin 6 22122212
Townsville 9 32223222
Learmonth 10 32223223
Alice Springs 6 32122211
Gingin 7 32212222
Canberra 5 22112221
Hobart 8 32213222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 22123211
Casey 23 45533332
Mawson 20 44324343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0111 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 12 G0, chance of G1
31 Jan 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
01 Feb 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jan. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 observed at Casey. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 30-Jan, with a chance
of G1 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0-G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on 31-Jan
due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 29-Jan.
G0 conditions are expected on 1-Feb as coronal hole and CME effects
wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 01 2024 0605UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
31 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Jan were
mostly normal with periods of poor conditions at high latitudes
due to an ongoing polar cap absorption event. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 30-Jan to 1-Feb.
Degraded conditions at high latitudes are expected on 30-Jan
due to an ongoing polar cap absorption event. Depressions are
possible from the second half of 31-Jan to 1-Feb due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity on 31-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 125 Near to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
29 January and is current for 29-30 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Jan were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 30-Jan
to 1-Feb. Depressions are possible from the second half of 31-Jan
to 1-Feb due to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 31-Jan. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 63300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list