[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 31 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 135/---
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/94 140/99 140/---
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jan was at the R0 level,
with the largest flare of the UT day a C5.7 flare at 30/1740UT.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3559 (N26W83, beta) was responsible
for the largest flare of the UT day but has rotated off the solar
disk and is no longer visible. AR3565 (N08E40, beta), AR3566
(S11W61, beta) and AR3568 (S10W32, beta) all displayed spot development
over the UT day, however they are magnetically simple regions
and have no significant flaring history. All other active regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
on 31-Jan and R0, with a chance of R1 on 1-2 Feb. The >10MeV
proton flux as measured by GOES was at the S1 level at the start
of the UT day with a declining trend. S1 conditions ended at
30/0420UT and the proton flux continued to decline. S0 conditions
are expected over 31-Jan to 2-Feb, however further strong flaring
activity near the western limb may cause another increase in
the >10MeV flux. Several CMEs were observed on 30-Jan, but none
are considered geoeffective. Many CMEs were observed directed
to the east, with several associated eruptions visible off the
eastern limb in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. Whilst these CMEs
do not pose a threat to the Earth, the region or regions responsible
for this activity will rotate on to the disk soon and may pose
a risk over the coming weeks. A disappearing filament was observed
from 30/0705UT to 30/0847UT stretching from S32W02 to S29W13
in H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. There is no associated
CME visible in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed on UT day 30-Jan was steady and elevated, ranging from
432 km/s and 592 km/s and is currently near 465 km/s. The elevated
solar wind conditions are due to high speed wind stream effects
from a pair of coronal holes, currently in a geoeffective position.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects on 31-Jan.
A further increase is expected halfway through 31-Jan, due to
an anticipated glancing impact from a CME first observed on 29-Jan.
Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to persist over 1-2
Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22112122
Cocos Island 2 21010020
Darwin 4 21111022
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 6 32112122
Alice Springs 4 21112022
Gingin 7 3211222-
Canberra 5 21212122
Hobart 6 22212122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 21202112
Casey 18 44433233
Mawson 28 34432265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
01 Feb 10 G0
02 Feb 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Jan. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with periods of G1-G2 observed at Mawson.
G0-G1 conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on 31-Jan
due to an anticipated glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 29-Jan, combined with ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. G0 conditions are expected on 1-2 Feb as coronal
hole and CME effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0605UT 29/01, Ended at 0405UT 30/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Jan were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 31-Jan to 2-Feb. Degradations are possible
from the second half of 31-Jan to 1-Feb at high latitudes due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 31-Jan. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 132 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 123 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 132 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Jan were
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region
and were 20-25% enhanced in the southern Australian region, with
the strongest enhancements observed during local night. Significant
sporadic E was observed at Hobart during local night and dawn
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 31-Jan to 2-Feb. Mild depressions in the southern Australian
region are possible from the second half of 31-Jan to 1-Feb,
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 31-Jan. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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