[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 29 10:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 141/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3559 (N29W70, beta) is the most magnetically
complex region still, but it has stablised and will soon rotate
off the western limb. All other numbered regions are decaying.
Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1 over
29-31 Jan.
A type III radio burst was reported at approximately
28/0230 UT despite no X-ray solar flares from the regions visible;
shortly followed by a type II radio burst, suggesting a flare
coupled with a CME has occurred. Indeed a CME was observed from
the eastern limb from 28/0248 UT. A possible explanation for
this event would be there is a sunspot region beyond the eastern
limb responsible for these events, however helioseismology plots
do not strongly support this. A large prominence eruption was
also observed shortly before the CME from the eastern limb. The
CME from this event is not expected to be geoeffective and no
other CMEs were observed on 28-Jan.
The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Jan was on a slow incline
as Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream. The maximum solar
wind speed observed was 468 km/s and the solar wind speed is
currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain enhanced over 29-30 Jan before possibly declining due
to the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 6 12222122
Darwin 7 22223122
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 10 22233223
Alice Springs 9 22233123
Gingin 9 22223223
Canberra 7 12223212
Hobart 6 12222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 02121111
Casey 18 35433223
Mawson 15 23332244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 14 G0, slight chance G1
30 Jan 12 G0
31 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G1 at Casey.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 29-31 Jan,
with a slight chance for an isolated period of G1 on 29-Jan due
to coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Jan were
generally normal in the southern hemisphere with some mild depressions
in the northern hemisphere. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal over 29-31 Jan. Some mild degradations
are possible during local night hours at high latitudes due to
coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 135 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Jan were
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 29-31 Jan.
Some mild depressions are possible at high latitudes during local
night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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