[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 28 10:30:09 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity R0, chance R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jan was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently two main sunspots on the solar
disk, plus several developing plage regions. AR3559 (N29W56,
beta) is mostly stable with some decay in its trailer spots.
AR3560 (S11W56, beta) is decaying. There may be a new region
rotating over the eastern limb, as several farside eruptions
have been observed from this vicinity. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 with a slight chance of R1 over 28-30 Jan, but this
forecast may be upgraded when and if this new region appears.
At least five CMEs were observed on 27-Jan, but they are all
considered farside and therefore not Earth-directed. Two CMEs
were observed from 1524 UT and 1724 UT respectively, possibly
where this new sunspot region is.
The solar wind speed on UT day 27-Jan was on a general declining
trend and ranged between 464 to 348 km/s, and is currently
near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was +5 to -4 nT. There is currently a coronal hole
in the southern solar hemisphere that may enhance
the solar wind speed by late 28-Jan or else on 29-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 2 12100111
Darwin 4 22011112
Townsville 3 22011111
Learmonth 4 22110211
Alice Springs 3 22110111
Gingin 2 21100111
Canberra 2 22001101
Hobart 3 22101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12111000
Casey 13 35232122
Mawson 9 43222210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 8 G0
29 Jan 14 G0, slight chance G1
30 Jan 14 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
28-30 Jan, with a slight chance of some G1 activity over 29-30
Jan due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Jan were
normal in the southern hemisphere with some mild degradations
in the northern hemisphere. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal on 28-Jan, with some possible degradations
over 29-30 Jan due to some possible coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 125 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on
26 January and is current for 26-28 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Jan were mostly near predicted monthly values
in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values over 28-30 Jan, although some mild depressions
may be observed over 29-30 Jan due to possible coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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