[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 27 10:31:05 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jan was R0. Two solar flares
were observed, both C8.9 (R0) both from AR3561 (S16W79, beta).
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. AR3559 (N29W43, beta) has continued to decay; and AR3560
(S11W43, beta) grew additional spots in the past 24 hours, but
it does not appear to be magnetically complex. AR3561 is currently
near the western solar limb and mostly out of view. There are
several regions rotating over the eastern limb that are yet to
be numbered. Solar activity over 27-29 Jan is expected to be
R0-R1.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 26-Jan.
The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Jan was steadily increasing.
A weak step increase in the solar wind speed was observed at 26/1950 UT,
possibly due to recent CMEs that were observed over 23-24 Jan.
The solar wind speed ranged between 326 and 495 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. A period
of southward Bz was observed from 26/1150-1310 UT.
The solar wind speed is generally expected to remain slightly enhanced
on 27-Jan before returning to background levels, but there is
a slight chance it may become further enhanced if more weak CMEs
arrive. There is a large coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere
that is currently crossing the central meridian and may enhance
solar wind speeds by 29-Jan, although this feature may be too
high of a latitude to take effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11113113
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 3 11012112
Townsville 6 11113113
Learmonth 6 21013123
Alice Springs 5 21012113
Gingin 6 11113123
Canberra 5 21012113
Hobart 6 11113213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 11003212
Casey 16 34443222
Mawson 16 34223343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0001 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 10 G0
28 Jan 8 G0
29 Jan 14 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 26-Jan. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditins are expected over 27-28 Jan, as the recent
CME impacts are not expected to induce any significant geomagnetic
activity. There is a slight chance of isolated periods of G1
late on 29-Jan due to possible coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Jan were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 27-29 Jan, with some mild degradations
possible by late 29-Jan due to possible coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 145 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 9 was issued
on 23 January and is current for 25-27 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 10 was issued on 26 January and is current for 26-28
Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Jan were
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
Sporadic-E was observed at Hobart, Perth and Norfolk Island during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 20% enhanced over 27-29 Jan, although some depressions may
be observed by late 29-Jan due to possible coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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