[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 26 10:30:59 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jan was at the R0 level
with several C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5.5
flare at 25/1522UT. There are currently four numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3559 (N29W30, beta-gamma) and AR3561
(S16W67, beta) are the most significant active regions and were
responsible for all the large C-class flares of the UT day. AR3559
appears stable and AR3561 is in decay. AR3560 (S11W30, beta)
displayed spot development over 25-Jan, whilst ARAR3555 (S09W58,
beta) was stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels,
with a chance of R2 over 26-28 Jan.
Several slow and faint CMEs were observed on 25-Jan, but none are
considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Jan was steady, ranging from
442 km/s to 369 km/s and is currently at around 380 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT.
A sudden jump in Bt is visible at around 25/1400UT, likely due
to the anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 22-Jan.
The change in Bt was very small and, as such, no geomagnetic
storm activity resulted from this event. Minor enhancements in
the solar wind speed are possible on 26-Jan due to a series of
glancing impacts from CMEs first observed on 23-Jan. The solar
wind speed is expected to be stable over 27-28 Jan, with the
chance of an increase in the second half of 28-Jan due to high
speed wind stream effects from a pair of coronal holes rotating
towards a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11222222
Cocos Island 4 11222111
Darwin 5 11222212
Townsville 8 11223322
Learmonth 5 11222212
Alice Springs 5 11222212
Gingin 6 11222222
Canberra 8 11223322
Hobart 8 11223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 00014321
Casey 14 24442222
Mawson 14 23223225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3231 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 20 G0-G1
27 Jan 10 G0
28 Jan 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 January
and is current for 25-26 Jan. G0 geomagnetic activity was observed
on 25-Jan in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Periods of
G1 are expected on 26-Jan due to possible glancing impacts from
multiple CMEs that were observed on 23-Jan. G0 conditions are
expected on 27-28 Jan, with a chance of G1 on 28-Jan due to high
speed wind stream effects from a pair of coronal holes approaching
a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-Jan were
mostly normal. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on 26-Jan, with degraded conditions possible at high latitudes
on 27-Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 9 was issued
on 23 January and is current for 25-27 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25-Jan were enhanced by 25% in the southern
Australian region and enhanced by 15-20% in the northern Australian
region, with the strongest enhancements observed during local
night. Brief periods of sporadic-E were observed across the Australian
region, mostly during local night. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 26-28 Jan, with
a chance of mild depressions on 27-Jan if anticipated geomagnetic
activity occurs on 26-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 42900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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