[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 25 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0038UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.6 0141UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0544UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 2058UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jan was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 24/0038UT, an M1.2 flare at 24/0109UT,
an M2.6 flare at 24/0141UT, an M1.4 flare at 24/0544UT and an
M1.3 flare at 24/2058UT. All of these flares were produced by
AR3561 (S16W53, beta-gamma). There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3561, which produced all
the day's M-class flares, showed some spot decay over the UT
day. The other region of note is AR3559 (N29W16, beta-gamma-delta)
is also complex and has a recent history of flaring and showed
some decay in its trailer spots on 24-Jan. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 25-27 Jan. Several CMEs were observed
on 24-Jan, but none are considered geoeffective. A slow, southwest
directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 24/0148UT,
associated with the M2.6 flare at 24/0141UT. Modelling suggests
this CME is not geoeffective. An eruption is visible in GOES
SUVI and SDO imagery from 24/1247 at around S16W50. An associated,
southwest directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 24/1348UT. This CME is not currently considered geoeffective,
but analysis is ongoing. A narrow, northwest directed CME is
visible from 24/1624UT in SOHO imagery. There is no clear on
disk source for this CME and it is not considered geoeffective.
A northeast directed CME is visible in SOHO imagery from 24/1712UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 24-Jan increased slightly before a gradual decrease,
ranging from 482 km/s to 411 km/s and is currently at around
420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) reached 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain steady
until an increase on 25-Jan at around 1300UT, due to an impact
from a CME first observed on 22-Jan. Further enhancements are
possible on 26-Jan due to glancing impacts from CMEs first observed
on 23-Jan. The enhancements are expected to continue into 27-Jan,
with a gradual decrease possible in the second half of the UT
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 33221012
Cocos Island 5 33221000
Darwin 7 33221012
Townsville 8 33222022
Learmonth 8 43222002
Alice Springs 7 33221012
Gingin 6 42211002
Canberra 6 33221011
Hobart 9 34321011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 23232001
Casey 17 45521111
Mawson 20 54532113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 28 G1-G2
26 Jan 20 G1
27 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 January
and is current for 25-26 Jan. G0 geomagnetic activity was observed
on 24-Jan in the Australian region. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at Casey and Mawson, with G0 conditions observed
at Macquarie Island. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
to commence on 25-Jan from 1300 UT +/- 10 hours due to a CME
first observed on 22-Jan. Further periods of G1 are expected
on 26-Jan due to multiple CMEs that were observed on 23-Jan.
G0 conditions are expected on 27-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-Jan were
generally normal, with some mild degradations in the northern
hemisphere. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 25-Jan, with degraded conditions possible over 26-27 Jan due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity, particularly at high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on
22 January and is current for 23-25 Jan. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 9 was issued on 23 January and is current
for 25-27 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Jan
were near predicted monthly values in the Australian region,
with enhancements of up to 15% observed in the northern Australian
region. Sporadic-E was observed at Hobart and Canberra. Some
spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
on 25-Jan. MUFs may become depressed by up to 15% over 26-27
Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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