[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 January 24 issued 2343 UT on 23 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 24 10:43:25 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 22/2222UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.1 0331UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.4 0811UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1258UT possible lower European
M1.3 1459UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.3 1640UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1829UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 1952UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jan reached a maximum of
R2, with the biggest solar flare being M5.1 at 23/0330 UT. In
total, there were sixteen flares at C9 level or higher, with
at least 10 of them being M-class (R1 or higher). AR3559 (N29W00,
beta-gamma) and AR3561 (S16W38, beta-gamma-delta) have been responsible
for all of the solar activity, with both regions continuously
flaring. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3559 went through periods of growth, decay,
and now appears to be splitting into two separate sunspot groups.
AR3561 has shown the most rapid and complex movement of the past
24 hours, and is developing a delta spot. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R1-R2 over 24-26 Jan.
CME activity on 23-Jan was complex. Four slow to moderate speed CMEs
were observed directed to the southwest, associated with flares
from AR3561. While these CMEs were not dense, it is likely they will
interact in space to combine in some capacity. A weak glancing blow
may be expected by 26/2000UT +/- 10 hours. An earlier arrival time
is possible since previous CMEs may have preconditioned the solar wind.
Three northward directed CMEs were also seen, all associated with
filament eruptions that occurred next to AR3559. None of these north
CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
The 10MeV proton flux has almost returned to background levels.
An enhancement may be observed upon arrival of the incoming CMEs,
but otherwise is expected to remain near background levels.
The solar wind environment on UT day 23-Jan was generally steady.
The solar wind speed ranged between 455 and 362 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The CME that
was observed on 21-Jan has likely missed Earth, such that the solar
wind is expected to be near background levels on 24-Jan. The solar
wind is then expected to become enhanced by 25/1300 UT due to
an anticipated CME arrival, followed by further enhancements on
26-Jan due to several other weak glancing blows from recent CMEs that
were observed on 23-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22112212
Cocos Island 4 22101211
Darwin 6 23112212
Townsville 7 23212222
Learmonth 7 32112213
Alice Springs 5 22112212
Gingin 6 32111212
Canberra 5 22211112
Hobart 6 23211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 23221001
Casey 22 45533223
Mawson 15 23333125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1011 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 10 G0
25 Jan 28 G1-G2
26 Jan 20 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 January
and is current for 25-26 Jan. G0 geomagnetic activity was observed
on 23-Jan in the Australian region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic activity
was observed in the Antarctic region, with some bouts of G1 at
Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 24-Jan. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are expected to commence on 25-Jan from
1300 UT +/- 10 hours due to a CME first observed on 22-Jan; then
further periods of G1 are expected by late 26-Jan due to multiple
CMEs that were observed on 23-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Jan were
generally normal, with some mild degradations in the northern
hemisphere. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 24-Jan, before becoming degraded over 25-26 Jan due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
25 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
26 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on
22 January and is current for 23-25 Jan. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 9 was issued on 23 January and is current
for 25-27 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Jan
were near predicted values to 30% enhanced in the Australian
region. Sporadic-E was observed at Townsville, Learmonth and
Hobart during local night hours. Some spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Equatorial scintillation was
observed near Weipa between 2300-2330 UT on 22-Jan.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
on 24-Jan. MUFs may become depressed by 20% over 25-26 Jan due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 90300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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