[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 23 10:31:00 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0622UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1924UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.0 1947UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.4 2121UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 196/148
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: On UT day 22-Jan, solar activity was R1 with several
low-level M-class solar flares, all produced by AR3559 (N17W15,
beta-gamma). An isolated M1 flare was observed at 0625 UT; then
several M-flares were observed consecutively from 1922-2230 UT.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. AR3559 is currently the largest and most magnetically complex
region; this region has a beta-gamma classification but it appears
it may be developing a delta spot. AR3561 (S16W27, beta-gamma)
is smaller than AR3559, but has developed in magnetic complexity
and is also considered beta-gamma with a possible delta spot
developing. AR3560 (S11E10, beta) has also shown some growth
over the past 24-hours. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over
23-25 Jan, primarily due to AR2559 and possibly AR3561.
A large solar filament spanning across the central meridian in the southern
hemisphere (centered near S35W10) erupted from 22/0910 UT. A
large CME was observed to the southwest from 22/1048 UT, associated
with the filament. While this CME was mostly deflected to the
south, an impact is expected by 25/1600 UT +/- 10 hours. Another
CME was observed to the west from 22/1436 UT. Analysis is currently
ongoing to determine the source, but at this stage is considered
to be farside and not geoeffective. A prominence eruption was
observed on the western solar limb from 22/1833 UT, which had
an associated CME. This CME is not likely o be geoeffective but
analysis is ongoing. It is not clear if there has been any CME
associated with the recent M-flare activity that has occurred
from 1922 UT, however this will be monitored.
The 10 MeV protons began to slowly rise at the beginning of 22-Jan
and have reached a maximum of 7.14 pfu before falling. A further
increase to the 10MeV protons may be possible on 23-Jan, originating
from the location of the recent filament eruption.
The solar wind environment on UT day 22-Jan showed a CME impact
from 22/1557 UT, likely the CME that was first seen on 20-Jan.
The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 508 km/s after this
impact and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +11 to -10 nT. Bz was
oriented southward from 22/1910 - 2030 UT. The solar wind is
expected to be mostly enhanced over 23-25 Jan, as two more CME
impacts are expected over this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 21212233
Cocos Island 5 12111222
Darwin 7 22221223
Townsville 7 11212233
Learmonth 9 21212333
Alice Springs 6 11211223
Gingin 6 21212222
Canberra 6 11211232
Hobart 9 22312233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 11112122
Casey 24 45432344
Mawson 22 33323336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0113 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 20 G0-G1, slight chance G2
24 Jan 16 G0, chance G1
25 Jan 28 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 22 January
and is current for 22-24 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on Ut day 22-Jan. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctica region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey.
A CME first seen on 20-Jan arrived at 22/1600 UT but has not yet produced
any significant activity.
G0-G1 with a slight chance G2 geomagnetic conditions
are possible on 23-Jan due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 21-Jan, although this is low confidence. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 24-Jan with a chance
for isolated bouts of G1. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 25-Jan from 1500 UT +/- 10 hours due to a CME associated with
a filament eruption first seen on 22-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Jan were
mostly normal, but some depressions were observed over South
America. The 10MeV protons have been somewhat enhanced (but under
the S1) threshold, which may have degraded conditions at high
latitudes.
Mostly normal conditions may be expected on 23-Jan,
but mild degradations may begin on 24-Jan before some stronger
degradations on 25-Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
24 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 6 was issued
on 22 January and is current for 23-24 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 8 was issued on 22 January and is current for 23-25 Jan.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Jan were near
predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic-E
was observed at Brisbane and Cocos Islands during local night
hours. Many sites on the east coast also had sporadic-E around
local dusk hours, although it was very brief.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 23-Jan,
but may become up to 20% depressed over 24-25 Jan as there is
geomagnetic activity expected on these days. Some minor enhancements
are possible on 23-Jan. The biggest depressions are likely going to be on
25-Jan. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list