[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 22 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several flares above the C5.0 level. The largest of which
was a C6.7 flare at 21/1927UT. There are currently eight active
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3559 (N29E21, beta-gamma) is the most significant region
on the solar disk and was responsible for all the notable C-class
flares of the UT day. This region showed spot development on
21-Jan and may have developed a small delta spot. AR3560 (S11E23,
beta-gamma), AR3561 (S20W13, beta) and AR3562 (S09W28, beta)
all also showed spot development on 21-Jan. All other numbered
regions were either stable or in decay. One unnumbered region
is present at S14W09 with alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Jan.
Multiple CMEs were observed over the UT day. An east directed
partial halo CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from
21/0024UT. This CME is associated with a filament eruption
visible at around N30E38 in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery
from 21/0001UT. Modelling indicates that the majority of the
ejected material will pass behind Earth, but a component will
impact on 23-Jan at 1300UT +/- 12 hours. A narrow northeast
directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from
21/0348UT. There is no clear on disk activity associated with
this CME and it is not considered geoeffective. A south directed
CME is visible from 21/1924UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery.
There is no clear on disk activity associated with this CME
and it is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Jan appeared steady, ranging
from 474 km/s to 329 km/s and is currently near 390 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. An
increase in the solar wind speed is expected late on 22-Jan due
to an impact from a CME first observed on 20-Jan. The wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 23-Jan until a second impact
due to a CME first observed on 21-Jan. Elevated solar wind speed
is expected to persist on 24-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21122012
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 2 20111011
Townsville 4 11122012
Learmonth 3 20122002
Alice Springs 3 21012011
Gingin 5 21113112
Canberra 4 11122012
Hobart 4 11222012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 01133111
Casey 13 44323122
Mawson 11 33233113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1211 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 30 G1-G2
23 Jan 30 G1-G2
24 Jan 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January
and is current for 22-23 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 21-Jan.
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 22-23 Jan due to
an impact at 1630UT +/- 12 hours on 22-Jan and an impact at 1300UT
+/- 12 hours on 23-Jan due to CMEs first observed on 20 and 21-Jan.
G0-G1 conditions are expected on 24-Jan due to ongoing CME influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Jan were
mostly normal, with some brief degradations in the northern Hemisphere.
Mostly normal conditions are expected on 22-Jan. Normal conditions,
with a chance of degradations at high latitudes are expected
on 23-24 Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity over 22-23
Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
24 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 5 was issued
on 20 January and is current for 23 Jan only. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Jan were enhanced by up to 35%
in the northern Australian region and were near predicted monthly
values to 20% enhanced in the southern Australian region, in
both cases the strongest enhancements were observed during local
night. Sporadic E obscured the F-layer at Brisbane, Canberra,
Hobart and Norfolk Island at times during the UT day and less
significant sporadic E was present for most of the remainder
of the day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced on 22-Jan. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values on 23-24 Jan, with the possibility of depressions
in the southern Australian region due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity on 22-23 Jan. Brief periods of sporadic E are expected
to persist over 22-24 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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