[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 January 24 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 21 10:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jan was at the R0 level,
with the largest flare a C5.2 flare at 20/1434UT. There are currently
nine active sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two
unnumbered regions. AR3559 (N29E34, beta-gamma), AR3560 (S11E37,
beta) and AR3561 (S20E01, beta) all displayed developement over
the UT day. AR3559 is the most significant region and has a possible
delta spot forming near its western edge. This region was responsible
for the largest flare of the UT day. All other numbered regions
were either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions have recently
developed on the solar disk, one at S13W12 and one at S15E14,
both with beta magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level with a chance of R1 over 21-23 Jan. A filament
eruption from around S11E20 visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery from 20/0848UT is associated with a partial halo CME
visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 20/0924UT. Whilst most
of the material from this CME will likely pass behind the Earth,
modelling suggests an impact is expected on 22-Jan at 1630UT
+/- 12 hours. Several other CMEs were observed, but none are
considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind environment on
UT day 20-Jan appeared steady, ranging from 460 km/s to 376 km/s
and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total planetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain steady over 21-Jan and the first half of 22-Jan. An
increase is expected in the second half of 22-Jan due to an impact
from a CME first observed on 20-Jan. Elevated solar wind conditions
are expected to persist over 23-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12112212
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 4 12112112
Townsville 4 12012212
Learmonth 5 21112212
Alice Springs 5 12112212
Gingin 5 22112212
Canberra 5 12112212
Hobart 5 12112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 11123111
Casey 19 45522222
Mawson 17 25223343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 6 G0
22 Jan 30 G1-G2
23 Jan 20 G1, with a chance of G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jan. G1 conditions were observed at Casey
and Mawson, with G0 conditions observed at Macquarie Island.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 21-Jan. G1-G2 conditions
are expected on 22-Jan and G1 conditions, with a chance of G2
are expected on 23-Jan due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 20-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Jan were
mostly normal, with some brief degradations in the northern Hemisphere.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 21-22 Jan. Normal
conditions, with a chance of degradations at high latitudes are
expected on 23-Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity over
22-23 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 154
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 110
Jan 106
Feb 105
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 160 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Jan were
enhanced by up to 30% in the northern Australian region and were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the southern
Australian region. Brief sporadic E was observed across the Australian
region, mostly during local night hours. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced on 21-Jan and
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced on 22-Jan. MUFs
are expected to be near monthly predicted values on 23-Jan, with
the possibility of depressions in the southern Australian region
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 22-23 Jan. Brief periods
of sporadic E are expected to persist over 21-23 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list